The Beacon Journal is a peer-reviewed bi-annual research journal of the Maritime Centre of Excellence (MCE) at Pakistan Navy War College (PNWC), Lahore and is recognized in Y-Category by Higher Education Commission of Pakistan (HEC). It is a forum for independent research, scholarly investigation and analysis, encompassing national, regional and global issues with policy relevance. It primarily focuses on maritime security studies with a multi-disciplinary perspective. The fundamental objective of The Beacon Journal is to publish top-quality, policy-relevant research in an accessible manner.
From Sea to Soil: Inland Impacts of Maritime Piracy and Arms Trafficking on East Africa
Maritime piracy and illicit arms trafficking in the Gulf of Aden (GOA) are often addressed as maritime security issues, but their implications have far-reaching inland impacts on the governance, political stability, and security dynamics. This article sets out to examine how these sea-based criminal activities shift and become agents of mainland insecurity within the East African region. Using Regional Security Complex Theory (RSC) and Securitisation Theory, this research explores the processes through which piracy and arms trafficking penetrate regional security, escalate local conflicts, and impact political, social, and economic instability. It highlights the sources and trade routes of illicit arms flow in the East African region. The analysis demonstrates that arms trafficked across the sea are frequently deployed to land-based insurgent groups, with the ransom of pirates funding criminal and political groups in war-torn, unstable East African nations. Knowing the relationship between sea and land security, this paper suggests a more unified method of regional security that focusses on coastal and inshore vulnerabilities.
Maritime Piracy, East Africa, Security, Securitization Theory, RCT.
Impact of Melting Arctic Routes on the ASEAN Blue Economy: Climate Change and Regional Security Challenges. (2025-2035)
As a result of climate change, a new shipping route has been discovered, offering a more efficient transit between Europe and Asia. It is possible due to the melting of Arctic Sea ice. On the contrary, these new global trade routes are prone to improving the trade system, but the ASEAN nations will face a serious issue. The ASEAN nations are dependent upon the maritime points, for example, the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. Diminished maritime traffic could potentially impact port activity, transit income, and maritime activities. ASEAN’s blue economy is based on ocean resources for development, livelihoods, and other environmental preservation, which is in jeopardy due to these changes. An ASEAN nation’s important sector for economic growth is based on maritime tourism and fisheries. It could be negatively impacted by a decrease in vessel traffic and an increase in environmental degradation due to the climatic changes in the Arctic region. As sea level rises as a result of polar ice melting, coastal regions are more prone to floods and ecosystem destruction. Moreover, the security challenges posed by China and Russia, which are increasing their military and geopolitical struggle, are creating regional security challenges as well; they are challenging the maritime sovereignty of ASEAN. It could undermine the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). A multi-faceted response, strategic development of ASEAN, active engagement in the global climate, a balanced approach to economic development, and environmentally friendly and sustainable opportunities with the geopolitical vision can help ASEAN to protect its maritime future in a world.
ASEAN, Arctic Sea, Blue Economy, Climate Change
Kautilyan Geopolitics and India’s Extended Neighborhood Policy: A Case of Persian
This paper is aimed at examining India’s foreign policy orientation towards the Persian Gulf within the framework of Kautilya’s Mandala theory from Arthashastra. By doing this the study highlighted the development of alliances and spheres of influence within the parameters of conventional realpolitik. India’s Look East policy received wide attention from analysts. But India’s ‘Look West Policy’, specifically focusing on its approach towards the Persian Gulf Region within the conventional strategic framework, lacked the due attention. New Delhi is aimed at forging a close partnership with Riyadh while at the same time balancing its traditional closeness with Tehran. This strategic objective is based on the Kautaliyan principle of ‘skilful manoeuvring’ between several ‘circles’ of states. This paper analysed the impacts of great power rivalry and emerging trends in energy security on the varying patterns of Indo-Gulf interactions. The main argument is that India’s Look West/Act West approach is not only a reaction to various regional and global developments but is also deeply rooted in traditional political philosophy, which has historically informed strategic discussions within Indian policy circles. This assertion is supported by multiple public statements, diplomatic communications, trade statistics, and strategic alliances. Reassessment of Kautilya's concept provides a unique cultural perspective. This offers a deeper insight into India's engagements with the Persian Gulf.
Mandala Theory, Kautilya, Extended Neighbourhood, Look-West Policy, and India-Gulf Relations.
Countering Connectivity: US Response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative
This paper examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is reshaping geopolitical arrangements in South Asia and critically analyses the strategic countermeasures undertaken by the US in response to China’s presence in the region. The paper takes a qualitative case-based approach to comparative analysis of the China-US interactions in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. The sources of data are official policy documents, think-tank reports, and local media, which are interpreted in terms of document and discourse analysis. The BRI has enabled China to become a strategic powerhouse through its extensive infrastructure, IT corridors, and maritime presence. Counter-initiatives by the US, including B3W, PGII, and the Quad, are poorly disseminated and funded. Nevertheless, they also pointed to a changing strategic stance that involves turning to digital infrastructures, climate-aware investments, and partnerships to enhance sovereignty. The current research contributes to the discourse on connectivity geopolitics by offering a modern review of the US-China rivalry in South Asia. It provides a policy-relevant background for US efforts to enhance the region’s influence by offering multilateral, region-specific, and sustainable options to the BRI.
BRI, China, US, South Asia, Strategic Competition.
Mapping Media Bias: Global Islamophobic Trends and their Reflections in South Asia
Islamophobia in the mass media is not a new phenomenon; however, this issue detonated across all media platforms following the events of 9/11. Since then, the majority of Western media outlets have continued to present a constructed stereotypical identity for all Muslims without regard to the diversity of the Muslim world, including different origins, outlooks, and aspirations. The Indian leadership perpetuates the Hindutva ideology, reflecting the same trend in South Asia. Media discourse on Islam reflects a repetitive pattern of rhetoric, all centred on the idea of Muslims as violent, primitive beings devoid of individual thoughts. This type of media coverage, focused mostly on elements of conflict and discord, is akin to war/violence journalism. In contrast, peace journalism uses insights gained from the perspective of common men and focuses on balance, fairness and accuracy. Through a discourse analysis, this paper ascertains that the prevalent Islamophobic trends in mass media at the global and South Asian levels fall under the ambit of war journalism, whereas peace journalism offers alternative means of media representation for Muslims focused on inclusion, fairness, and accuracy.
Islamophobia, Hindutva, Media Bias, Perceptions, South Asia, War-Peace Journalism.
Impacts of Climate Change on Human Security in Pakistan
Human security has emerged as a non-traditional security threat (NTS). Developing countries like Pakistan are confronting this issue. According to the UN, human security is a concept that enables nations to address issues that undermine human life, sources of income, and the dignity of populations, regardless of the realist perspective of state and military power. One of the most critical (NTS) threats is climate change, which is manifested through ongoing temperature increases and irregular patterns of rainfall, as well as existing environmental issues like droughts, floods, glacier melting, and worsening environmental pollution. This research examines the relationships between climate change and human security in Pakistan from 2018 to 2022. This study reveals that climate-induced phenomena have significantly undermined the various dimensions of human security, e.g., economic security, food and water accessibility, public health, and community stability. For example, smog, a product of environmental pollution, appears in the form of thick, hazy air in several cities like Lahore (Pakistan), causing high respiratory ailments, reduced economic productivity, intermittent lockdowns, and the suspension of educational and business activities. Therefore, this study examines the combined effects of climate change that heighten the risks of marginalisation and pose a challenge to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 13). In this research, an attempt is made to advocate for the implementation of comprehensive strategies to address the impacts of climate change, as well as the development of policies based on factual evidence during the period of 2018-2022.
German Indo-Pacific Vision: Pakistan as a Strategic Hub
The post-Cold War international system has entered a turbulent phase, with states confronting an increasing number of political, economic, and security pressures. Uncertainty has intensified since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, much like a storm brewing to cause international uncertainty. Here, Germany has sought to uphold the principles of multilateralism, a rule-based international order, and collaboration. The above principles have, in recent years, been integrated into mechanisms aimed at balancing policymaking based on the determination of interests with limited resources, to ensure efficiency in the face of increasing global pressures. Similarly, Pakistan has also responded to shifting geopolitical dynamics by formulating a national policy initiative, as evidenced by the development of a national policy framework in 2022. By adopting a qualitative approach, this paper critically analyses the guiding principles of Germany and the Republic of Pakistan and limits the field of actions in economic and trade-related areas, where the cooperation activities are mainly bound, as the major sources of cooperation. The results indicate that the coordinated efforts that can supersede sectoralism and the project-based approach can lead to the realisation of a comprehensive development due to the importance of the connection with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the emerging blue economy. The strengthening of the German-Pakistani collaboration in this regard would also stabilise their rather long-term collaboration and empower both sides to address future storms in the geopolitical context better armed, and help bring mutual prosperity and security.
German Indo-Pacific Vision, Pakistan, Multilateralism, Blue Economy, Geopolitical Dynamics.
AI Militarization in the Seas: Beyond the Stopping Power of the Sea
In an era dominated by technological advancements, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a pivotal element for nations seeking to assert influence on the global stage. Mearsheimer's idea of the stopping power of water asserts that oceans are pivotal enablers of wealth and power. The study explores how nations strategically cultivate AI technology to enhance global influence. This research examines oceans as the next frontier of competition, with particular emphasis on the high seas as valuable arenas for power projection. AI-based unmanned vehicles and advanced technologies are identified as key facilitators for easy access to these high seas, contributing to an escalating power struggle between the US and China. The study scrutinises extravagant claims and freedom of navigation operations as manifestations of this competition. This research employs a qualitative research method to provide analysis using Mearsheimer’s analysis directed at the limitations of international laws in effectively addressing the challenges posed by AI-based vehicles in open waters. Lastly, the research underscores a prevailing power vacuum in the high seas, highlighting how major powers employ AI technology to assert dominance, reshaping the landscape of global maritime geopolitics.
AI-Militarization, High Seas, US-China, Offensive Realism, Power Competition
Book Review: 88 Days to Kandahar; A CIA Diary by Robert Grenier
This book is holding a tremendous amount of inside knowledge of how CIA operatives work, plan and negotiate in clandestine operations. From secret meetings to intelligence based operational preparedness, coding and de coding of intelligence intercepts and maneuvering through double cross in a real war time scenario; this book provides a detailed account on various aspects of CIA's way of war. Robert Grenier, a former CIA Station Chief, has authored a great piece of information in this book. He is one of the key architect of US clandestine intelligence activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan after 9/11 incident. The book gives a mature perspective on initiation of Afghan war and post 9/11 secret meetings of Taliban representatives and CIA officials.
Strategic Maritime Environment in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan
This article examines various dynamics of strategic maritime environment in Indian Ocean and then describes its relevance with respect to Pakistan. Indian Ocean has become pivotal zone of strategic rivalries and cooperation. The confluence of various regional and extra-regional actors is complicating geo- political and geo-strategic environment of Indian Ocean. It has ramifications for Pakistan. This article aims at examining the challenges as well as opportunities for Pakistan emerging in the complex strategic milieu in Indian Ocean. This would help to suggest various policy recommendations which may be used to make an all-encompassing maritime strategy for Pakistan by the policy makers. The article aims to analyse the strategic maritime environment of IOR through the lens of Neo-realism. It makes evident that the Indian Ocean's changing geo- political and geo-strategic environment requires Pakistan to formulate a holistic Indian Ocean policy in order to meet the challenges and to avail the opportunities.
Strategic Environment, Structural Realism, Sino-Indian rivalry, Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), CPEC (China- Pakistan Economic Corridor).
Managing Leadership Challenges: A Comparative Study Between Confucius and Iqbal's Leadership Philosophy in Backdrop of CPEC
The progressive globalization presents numerous challenges of ethics and leadership performance by confronting organizations with complex and interdependent issues. With the initiation of CPEC, the realization of understanding the cross-culture, leadership, and management philosophies and practices emerged as one of the bottlenecks for the project team. This research paper is an attempt to analyse CPEC scenario in order to explore whether or not the Chinese thinking of Confucianism and Iqbal led Philosophy have shaped the development of leadership styles in China and Pakistan, respectively. This study not only explains and highlights different traits of leadership under a complex cross-cultural environment but also identifies the factors that determine a leader's principal style to address the challenges of today's leadership. It also examines the extent to which the mix of both traditional philosophies of Confucius and Iqbal will be successful to overcome the present and future leadership challenges.
Management, Cross-cultural leadership, Iqbal leadership philosophy, Confucius leadership, Junzi, China Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Balance of Power Politics and China's Role as Strategic Balancer in South Asia
This study has an objective to have a theoretical insight about Chinese maneuverings in South Asia. This paper will analyze whether it is going to change regional power equilibrium and what will be its influence on international relations. The scope of this study is to highlight the importance of South Asia on geo-political map and to discuss the interests and role of China in this region. It primarily focuses on the issues of peace and security as well as political and strategic milieu of South Asia. This paper presents new paradigm of Chinese military coalitions with regional states. In conclusion, it presents the depiction of future politics and power equation in the competitive ambiance of South Asia. This strategic competition will be analyzed keeping in view China's efforts to neutralize Indian aggressive intentions having bonds with other states of the region.
Power Politics, Balance Of Power, Balance Of Threat, Bandwagoning, Alliances, China
Role of Internal Security of India in Shaping Its Strategic Culture: Policy Options for Pakistan
The concept of strategic culture has a relative interpretation in strategic and academic community. Indian strategic culture in general and its interplay with internal security in particular is a less worked out area of research. This paper explains how internal security challenges of India are shaping its strategic culture towards Pakistan. It includes contextualizing the concept of strategic culture, modelling the Indian strategic culture with respect to scope of research, determining the interplay of strategic culture and internal security of India and identifying its impact on Pakistan. Finally, the paper proposes policy options and action points for Pakistan. The paper establishes three fundamental aspects. First, the Indian strategic thoughts by and large, stems from Kautilya's thoughts. Second, the grand strategic thinking of India has a consistent element of linking insurgences with Pakistan. Third, with the rise of Hindutva through BJP and India favouring geostrategic environment, India has resorted to offensive – defensive strategy towards Pakistan. In light of these three aspects, the paper finally presents policy options for Pakistan while taking into account its national interests.
Strategic Culture, Narendra Modi, Insurgencies, Pakistan, Security, Hindutva.
France Ingress in Indo-Pacific Region: Options for Pakistan
The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a pivot for a strategic competition among the Great Powers since the dawn of twenty-first century. The shift in American ideational leadership and rise of China provided a strategic space for France which is a mid-size global power in Europe and global politics. France enjoys a significant position in the Indo-Pacific due to its colonial past and overseas territories in Indian and Pacific Ocean. Its Indo-Pacific strategy aimed to maximize its role in the region when United States is crafting new institutional architecture while bypassing its European partners. French involvement in the region draws attention to the fact that mini-lateralism is not a solution for the complex problems of the region. Besides, Pakistan being an Indian Ocean littoral state, cannot ignore the geo-economic and geopolitical developments in the region. That is why Pakistan is aspiring to shift from geo strategy to geo-economics as the region offers colossal opportunities to promote Blue Economy in Pakistan.
FRANCE INGRESS IN INDO-PACIFIC REGION: OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN
Maritime Trade: Comparing Pakistan with Maritime Neighbours
Economic and development strategy in Pakistan has not been up to the standard deemed as prerequisite of any nation that tends to develop rapidly. Inland, offshore, and ocean resources are not exploited as they should have been. This is primarily due to lack of consistency in the development policies, inflation, unemployment, and most importantly, persisting trouble in the balance of trade and payments. The maritime sector, in this regard, has been a quarry for carelessness and years of neglect. While the shipping industry is way off target, fisheries have become the only coastal resource being exploited out at sea. Maritime vulnerabilities are growing, giving rise to a consistent decline in trade and tariffs, and to gauge Pakistan's economy, the economic viability of this sector is further becoming limited. This article focuses on the state of Pakistan's maritime trade and compares it with Pakistan's maritime neighbours, i.e., India, Iran, and Oman.
MARITIME TRADE: COMPARING PAKISTAN WITH MARITIME NEIGHBOURS
The Realist Paradigm and Regional Security Dynamics in South Asia
Power politics is no historical accident. According to Morgenthau it is a 'human fact' or 'logical necessity.' Power politics is always explored with in the forces of power reality and morality in order to discern each other. Realists' assumptions about the global affairs are practical implantation of what power politics is. However, power accumulation is the key interest among the power groups in South Asia resulting in sustained anarchic environment. During the past centuries, the South Asian region has witnessed the ascendancy and decadency of multi-civilizational great empires. Various areas have been ruled by different power-groups and ethnic entities under varying socio-religious characteristics, fighting for their survival and supremacy. It has witnessed shift from the most dominating monarchies to the ascendance of imperial powers and the creation of non-state actors. Power politics and anarchy has been traced out as a persistent indicator in the South Asian politics raising security concerns.
South Asia, Realism, Security, Power, Anarchy, Politics
Pakistan's Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities in the Neighbourhood
Three interrelated concepts of geography, geo-politics and geo-strategy exert direct influence on shaping a state's geopolitical environment, attendant challenges and opportunities. Pakistan has had to deal with two difficult neighbours and role of major powers while enhancing its geopolitical space in the region and beyond. It essentially requires deciphering influence of geography and geopolitics on Pakistan geo-strategy in a difficult neighbourhood. Meanwhile, new trends in regional and global geopolitics also impact the way Pakistan respond. This paper analyses contours of Pakistan's geopolitical environment, impact of geography, and course of its engagement with neighbours and the great-powers particularly the United States, during and after the Cold War. It also assesses opportunities available to Pakistan, as it seeks to pivot from geopolitics to geo-economics by linking up with new trade routes and deepening economic cooperation to meet growing needs of energy and markets for economic growth. Here too, geography and geo-politics will shape extent of Pakistan's geo-economic success.
Geopolitics, Geography, Pakistan, Neighbours, Geo-Economics
The Challenge of Water Management in Central Asia: A Case Study of Aral Sea
Aral Sea, which was called as world's fourth freshwater lake has transformed into a manmade disaster since 1960. This happened due to the waters of Amu and Syr rivers, which were a source of supply of water to the Aral Sea, stopped reaching the Sea. Consequently, Aral Sea began to diminish and by 1991 it had lost more than fifty percent of its area. The marginalization of Aral Sea not only led to widespread environmental disaster but also curtailed the flow of fresh water for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two Central Asian states sharing the waters of Aral Sea. Fishing, flora and fauna also began to diminish with the loss of water from the Aral Sea. This paper will discuss how the Central Asian states, regardless of numerous contentious issues, succeeded in precluding water conflicts in Central Asia which could have destabilized regional peace and security. When the Soviet Central Asian Republics got independence in 1991, there was a strong opinion in some circles that the region would plunge into inter and intra-state territorial, ethnic, lingual and water conflicts.
THE CHALLENGE OF WATER MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA: A CASE STUDY OF ARAL SEA
Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) For National Security: A Counter Terrorism Approach in Pakistan
OSINT is intelligence gathered from publicly available information. The significance of OSINT takes up due to frequent internet usage. Worldwide connectivity through social media has also revealed unprecedented challenges to existing intelligence organizations/ LEAs. In this context, developed countries established dedicated OSINT centers. However, debates on its reliability and efficacy are still persistent. Research analyzes the efficacy of OSINT to meet national security requirements. It is qualitative with an action research approach tapping into analyse the quality of data. The essential rationale of OSINT for national security with a perspective of counter-terrorism is the product of this study. OSINT application is validated on 4P CONTEST - counter-terrorism model of UK. Opportunities for Pakistan have been highlighted considering the advantages and disadvantages of OSINT tools and methods. Research revealed that, globally OSINT is a new term and lacks an agreed-upon definition. However, the field is highly understudied in Pakistan; there is no local literature available. The paper concludes by highlighting a need for dedicated OSINT organizations.
National Security, Counter Terrorism, OSINT, Data Mining
Defining Terrorism: Why Does The UN Fail?
The transnational character of terrorism coupled with its international fallout compelled the United Nations to take on the issue in the last quarter of the 20th century. However, even after fifty years of engagement with the issue, the UN has failed to produce anything substantive or conclusive about terrorism. There is neither an agreed definition nor even a broad consensus over the meaning of terrorism. Numerous deliberations and subsequent resolutions on terrorism at the UN have proven to be largely bootless and ineffectual. This repeated failure raises the obvious question; why does the UN fail? What is it about terrorism that prevents the UN member states from agreeing on its definition? It is precisely these questions that this article seeks to investigate. It identifies five standout factors that help put the UN failure in perspective.
United Nations, Terrorism, Definition, Failure
Emerging Sino-Iranian Strategic Relations and Opportunities for Pakistan
With two of Pakistan’s neighbours, China and Iran signing a deal of cooperation, the evolving situation appears to be promising for Pakistan. From the perspective of the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), as proposed by Barry Buzan, the states with territorial and geographical proximity have security perceptions and problems that are intertwined in such a complex manner that they cannot be understood in distinction. Furthermore, as the RSCT widens the dimension of security to include the economic, political and societal dimensions in addition to the military security, the opportunities for Pakistan in this situation can improve the ‘comprehensive’ notion of security. On the political front, the deal provides a chance to Pakistan to improve relations with Iran that remain strained for the past few years over border issues and Pakistan’s tilt towards Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, as a stable Iran-Pakistan border is a sine qua non for the stable and successful progression of the BRI project, of which the CPEC is a flagship part, there are also chances of enhanced security cooperation between Iran, China and Pakistan. Additionally, the withdrawal of India and its replacement with China in the Chabahar port of Iran also indicates an improved environment for the national security of Pakistan with the reduced chances of fuelling Baloch separatists. With Iran’s capability of exporting electricity to Pakistan along with the potential of increased energy cooperation between the three states, the Sino-Iranian deal can plausibly alleviate the looming energy crisis of Pakistan. Additionally, while Iran-Pakistan trade could be bolstered, owing to its strategically significant position on the transit of pipelines between China and Iran, Pakistan can also renegotiate more favourable terms of trade with China- thus leading to improved economic conditions. With these opportunities at hand, to what extent Pakistan can reap the most benefits, however depends on Pakistan’s apt policy-making and pertinent actions.
: China-Iran Deal, RSCT, Security, Economy, CPEC
Hindutva Versus Two Nation Theory: An Appraisal
In India, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) won the elections in 2019 and formed the government for the second time reflecting its popularity among the masses. BJP is politically inspired by Hindu nationalist movements which include Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP). The followers of these movements believe in Hindutva ideology which is based on the conception of Hindu culture and Hinduism. The roots of Hindutva ideology can be traced back to ancient India’s history but it became evident in 1990s. The immersion of Hindutva in the democratic progression has distressed the secular bearings of Indian constitution and generated insecurities for minorities in general and Muslims and Christians in particular. Hindutva is a main source of extremism and violence that engenders misgivings among minorities relating to their impending existence. Under such a frenzy environment, it is evaluated that the BJP’s backing of Hindutva might aggravate the progression to further India’s disintegration. To comprehend the role of Hindutva within Indian society, the theory of clash of civilizations provides insights to grasp this debate.
Hindutva Versus Two Nation Theory: An Apraisal
Emerging Cyber Technologies in the Maritime Domain: Challenges for Maritime Security and ‘Order at Sea’
The global shipping and other commercial and economic activities are backbone for states’ political activities, sustainable socioeconomic development, and security. However, traditional concepts of security, order, state, power, warfare, and threat perception besides several others are in transition bringing drastic changes to the contemporary world. Technological advancements, considerable amount of research and development, and evolution of knowledge about different domains have affected all spheres of life, and besides opportunities, number of challenges too have emerged. Maritime realm is the one going through these changes quite vehemently, but this spatial dimension has gathered lesser focus in terms of academic activities, research and establishment of discourse related to its issues. Nevertheless, nature of threats in this domain is more non-traditional than traditional. These non-traditional challenges are also getting transformed and getting complex due to advancement of technology. Particularly, innovation in cyber technology has brought afore a plethora of opportunities in maritime realm, simultaneously for state and non-state actors being used for positive as well as negative purposes challenging ‘order at sea’. This paper is an endeavour to evaluate emerging cyber technologies potentially affecting safe navigation, and law and order within maritime domain. The research undertaken is relevant to contemporary issues which could bring important structural configuration in dealing with challenges of cyber technology advancement.
: Maritime Security, Cyber Technologies, Hacking, Ship Security, Port Infrastructure Security, Law Enforcement at Sea.
School of Politics and International Relations, NUML
Pakistan National Security: Threats from Emerging Technological Devices and Future Prospects
National security has been described as the ability of a country to protect itself from internal and external threats and cater for the protection of its sovereignty and people. It can be an ability to defend country and nation to meet the needs necessary for its self-preservation and self-improvement including its people, economy, and institutions. It is a nation’s possession of control of its sovereignty and destiny. Thus, national security is not only something that merely protects people; it also involves providing safety, security, and freedom. After end of the Cold War and at the beginning of 21st Century, the concept of warfare has changed due to advancement in technology. The new environment has replaced the primitive pattern of warfare with advanced electronic devices which are dangerous and unpredictable. So, the new electronic instruments put countries in defensive position because modern devices are very effective and offensive to counter adversaries’ moves. In this situation, Pakistan is facing serious security challenges from Non-State Actors (NSA) and adversaries moves to destabilize country. Pakistan is facing alarming threats from emerging technologies, especially from India - as a strategic competitor. For this reason, advances in technologies, such as - computing, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing, warrant extra attention to anticipate the trajectories of emerging technologies, as well as to understand their implications for national security. Nonetheless, time has arrived that Pakistan must have a comprehensive national security policy to defend the country from strategic competitor in various emerging technological fields. It is necessary to focus on technologies which are critical to the country’s economic and military future, including enabling technologies. For this purpose, security establishment must take appropriate actions to compete adversary with effective measures, because Pakistan is perceived not to be an indispensable player, and desire radical actions for the socio-economic strength of the country.
National Security, Emerging Technologies, Cyber Attacks, Electronic Devices, Internal and External Threats, Advancement in Science and Technology.
Artificial Intelligence, Pakistan’s National Security Policy: International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is still far from being applicable across the board, that is, the full autonomous form. As for progress in facial recognition, speech recognition, robotics and swarm drones, it is predicted that AI will achieve full autonomy in near future. AI is now being used at all levels, be it civil or military. In case of China, integration of high-end AI is making international system complex and uncertain making it hard for the states to cope up with the technological gaps. This research paper follows a mode of in-depth discussions with policymakers, researchers, academicians, international law experts and technological specialists related to the area of subject. The ambit of the study draws upon the literature available on Artificial Intelligence (AI), its ramifications on National Security of Pakistan and International Human Rights Law (IHL) – both from printed and online sources. The research study aims to unlock the delicate and unexplored domain of AI and National security of Pakistan vis-i-vis traditional and non- traditional security aspects. This is paralleled with understanding of IHL that has and can influence the national security framework of states like Pakistan. The research explores a set of inter-related questions: How to conceptualize AI in the international security sphere?; What are the aspects and challenges in embracing AI for traditional and non-traditional aspects of National Security of Pakistan?; How AI has impacted the national security outlook of Pakistan?; How to draw relevance of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) to AI generally and Pakistan specifically?
Artificial Intelligence, National Security, International Humanitarian Law
Changing Dynamics of Deterrence in South Asia: Implications for Strategic Stability
Deterrence involves increasing the cost of aggression for the adversary, such that retaliation surpasses the perceived benefits of aggression. The nuclearisation of Pakistan and India constricted the space of conventional war; however, India’s progressive enhancement in its nuclear force posture towards a counterforce targeting strategy undermines the credibility of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent forces. The introduction of offensive military doctrines and destabilising weapons systems seek to dominate escalation and destabilise deterrence equilibrium. This research paper aims to analyse how changing force postures and doctrinal positions define the dynamics of deterrence and then explore its correlation with strategic stability. To construct it, this study emphasises the episodic crisis that characterises the transitional dynamics of deterrence, viewed through the lens of strategic stability. The study is holistic in nature; it employs a process-tracing methodology to investigate India and Pakistan's nuclear doctrinal positions, which intrinsically elucidate the dynamics of deterrence in South Asia.
Book Review - US Naval Power in the 21st Century: A New Strategy for Facing the Chinese and Russian Threat
Brent D. Sadler offers a comprehensive analysis of the greater maritime competition unfolding globally, especially between the United States and revisionist powers such as China and Russia. The book's central theme centres on the idea that the US, China, and Russia will engage in the most significant maritime competition in the upcoming decades. The latter are rapidly bolstering their forces in maritime domains to counterbalance US influence over the global commons. The author argues that the Cold War legacy-rooted American naval policy fails to adequately address the challenges of the 21st century. Serving as the latest policy prescription for American policymakers, this book outlines how the US can effectively tackle the naval challenges posed by China and Russia while remaining in peaceful competition. The book covers a wide array of topics expounded upon in detail by the author.
US-India Security Partnership: An Analysis of Grand Strategy of Trump and Biden
Grand Strategy is a basic strategic view and a detailed plan for a shared set of ideas among policymakers. Policy makers formulate a set of guiding principles to achieve a specific goal. In a comparative manner, this examines the contours of US grand strategy, with particular emphasis on the security policy towards India during the governments of President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Both governments have consistently prioritised great power competition as a strategic objective within their respective grand strategies. China is a superpower with which the United States is competing: therefore, the grand strategy of the United States in terms of the national interest of countering China during the aforementioned eras steps up the security engagement with India despite having some fault lines in it. This study provides an explanation of how the US grand strategy, specifically its offshore balancing approach, heightened security engagement with India under both neo-conservatives have generally supported a strong India to counter China. Because they prioritise promoting democracy and American values globally, they see India as a potential strategic partner. While liberal imperialist regimes in the United States may be wary of India's human rights records, they also see India as a large democracy and a potential economic partner.
US Security Policy,Grand Strategy. India,Major Defence Partner,President Donald Tramp, President Joe Biden, Indo-Pacific.
Unravelling Ambiguities: The Quest for Credible Minimum Deterrence in South Asia
Since 1998, Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD) has remained India's and Pakistan's doctrinal posture. At face value, a credible minimum means less nuclear force to ensure stable deterrence. However, the term is not as simple as it seems because there is no agreed- upon explanation of how much can be quantified as minimum and credible. The Asian nuclear triangle (India, Pakistan, and China) adds another layer of ambiguity to the concept of CMD in South Asia. Because India's minimum credible nuclear force may not be credible against conventionally advantageous China. Similarly, the conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan presses the latter to rely on nuclear weapons to deter the full spectrum of threats (nuclear, conventional, and sub-conventional) from India. India’s qualitative build-up, like the employment of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), its strategic partnership with the USA, and its doctrinal postulations, have direct implications for the stated policy of Pakistan. This research basically addresses the question: Are India and Pakistan abiding by the CMD policy? How can both sides ensure the practicability of the CMD in South Asia? The study is descriptive and analytical in nature. For this purpose, secondary sources like journal articles, books, newspaper articles, and accessible official websites and documents are utilized. The article concludes that what is considered a credible minimum today may not be credible tomorrow. Thus, the arms race will continue to be a constant feature of the South Asian nuclear environment. To abide by the CMD, India, and Pakistan need to be engaged in serious nuclear dialogue and focus on credible measures (beyond risk reduction) like the mechanism of some arms control regime.
India, Pakistan, Credible Minimum Deterrence, Full Spectrum Deterrence, Arms Control Regime.
China-Solomon Islands Security Pact: Implications in Maritime Domain
In April 2022, China and the Solomon Islands concluded a security pact to cement the political foundation of their relations by primarily supporting each other's sovereignty, integrity, maritime protection, and development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The security pact has impacted not only China and the Solomon Islands, but also the US dominance of Oceania in particular and the Indo-Pacific in general. The security pact will not only allow Beijing to strengthen itself in the Indo-Pacific Oceans against the diminishing influence of the US, but it will also allow Beijing to strengthen its position in the Atlantic Ocean to further trap the already-trapped US. Following the US Island Chain Strategy, under which the US established three island chains in the Pacific Ocean to check the Chinese and Russian expansion after World War II, China now has the capability and capacity to establish a 4500 km-long island chain in the Atlantic Ocean from the Azores to Trinidad, which will assist it in creating a global balance for economic and social development through blue diplomacy.
China, Solomon Islands, Security Pact, Island Chains and Atlantic Ocean.