BRAHMOS INCIDENT: INADVERTENT ESCALATION AND CRISIS STABILITY IN PAKISTAN-INDIA RELATIONS

Abstract

The BrahMos missile incident of 2022 and its implications for crisis stability in South Asia are the core of this paper. Departing from the common explanation of misfiring due to technical malfunction, this paper explores the possibility that the firing of the dual-capable BrahMos cruise missile in Pakistani territory may be a part of deliberate strategic signalling or an attempt to evaluate Pakistan’s preparedness and deterrence response. This paper evaluates this incident under the broader India-Pakistan security dilemma, building the argument that even unintended military actions like this incident between two nuclear-armed states can be a cause of serious risks of misperception, inadvertent escalation, and crisis instability. This paper examines the question of how technological advancements in missile delivery systems, defence programs, and evolving military doctrines have increased the strategic competition in South Asia. The paper dives into scenario-based analysis, keeping under analysis the normalization of the use of limited force under nuclear threshold. It also explores the possibility of deterrence failure due to ideological extremism, weak or almost no communication mechanisms, and historical mistrust between India and Pakistan. The paper argues that testing of operational thresholds may lead to a gradual undermining of deterrence stability and increase the risks of inadvertent crisis escalation. There is a need to institutionalize effective risk reduction measures and reinforce strategic stability frameworks.