HYDRO-POLITICS AND REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE KABUL RIVER BASIN: A REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX THEORY PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Pakistan and Afghanistan share the Kabul River Basin, but political instability in Afghanistan and security challenges have prevented the formulation of a bilateral water-sharing agreement. This paper employs a qualitative research method using the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to analyse the Kabul River Basin, not simply as a growing environmental concern, but as a latent security issue within the Pakistan-Afghanistan-India-China regional sub-complex. It argues that with increasing Indian influence and investments in Afghanistan’s hydro infrastructure, the risk of future water-related tensions looms large. However, China’s recent interest in building water infrastructure in Afghanistan presents a new strategic opportunity for Pakistan; the outcome depends on Pakistan’s ability to achieve a balanced negotiated framework while catering to the India factor. Thus, the central question is how Pakistan can capitalise on China’s involvement to initiate proactive trilateral cooperation and avert the securitisation of water in an already volatile region. By integrating hydro politics into the logic of RSCT, the paper provides a framework to rethink water diplomacy in South Asia before the Kabul River Basin becomes a new frontier for regional contestation.