Emerging Sino-Iranian Strategic Relations and Opportunities for Pakistan

Abstract

With two of Pakistan’s neighbours, China and Iran signing a deal of cooperation, the evolving situation appears to be promising for Pakistan. From the perspective of the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), as proposed by Barry Buzan, the states with territorial and geographical proximity have security perceptions and problems that are intertwined in such a complex manner that they cannot be understood in distinction. Furthermore, as the RSCT widens the dimension of security to include the economic, political and societal dimensions in addition to the military security, the opportunities for Pakistan in this situation can improve the ‘comprehensive’ notion of security. On the political front, the deal provides a chance to Pakistan to improve relations with Iran that remain strained for the past few years over border issues and Pakistan’s tilt towards Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, as a stable Iran-Pakistan border is a sine qua non for the stable and successful progression of the BRI project, of which the CPEC is a flagship part, there are also chances of enhanced security cooperation between Iran, China and Pakistan. Additionally, the withdrawal of India and its replacement with China in the Chabahar port of Iran also indicates an improved environment for the national security of Pakistan with the reduced chances of fuelling Baloch separatists. With Iran’s capability of exporting electricity to Pakistan along with the potential of increased energy cooperation between the three states, the Sino-Iranian deal can plausibly alleviate the looming energy crisis of Pakistan. Additionally, while Iran-Pakistan trade could be bolstered, owing to its strategically significant position on the transit of pipelines between China and Iran, Pakistan can also renegotiate more favourable terms of trade with China- thus leading to improved economic conditions. With these opportunities at hand, to what extent Pakistan can reap the most benefits, however depends on Pakistan’s apt policy-making and pertinent actions.