BEYOND DETERRENCE: INDIA'S NAVAL MODERNISATION INSTIGATING MARITIME ARMS RACE SPIRAL MODEL IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolution of India’s maritime strategy and its operationalization through sustained naval modernization, specifically examining how the integration of advanced strategic assets influences the security architecture of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the Arabian Sea. Utilizing a qualitative research design, the study triangulates data from scholarly literature, official policy documents, and real-time reportage – including the mobilization of India’s Western Naval Fleet during the May 2025 military standoff – to analyse shifting threat perceptions in the maritime domain. The research argues that India’s assertive maritime progression catalyzes regional destabilization, undermining the fragile security matrix and precipitating an intense naval arms race between India and Pakistan. By evaluating Indian strategic developments alongside Pakistan’s subsequent countermeasures, the paper explores the resulting degradation of deterrence dynamics between these two Nuclear Weapon States (NWSs). The study provides a descriptive mapping of military build-ups and an exploratory assessment of the strategic options available to Pakistan to maintain a regional maritime balance. Ultimately, the analysis highlights how such power projections heighten the risk of entanglement and challenge the long-term stability of the broader Indian Ocean maritime environment.